What is this?
This tool calculates the Detroit Lions' chances of making the NFL playoffs based on the remaining games in the 2025-26 season. Adjust the win probabilities for any game using the sliders below, and watch the playoff odds update instantly.
The model runs 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season. In each simulation, every game outcome is randomly determined based on the probability you set. The final percentage shows how often the Lions made the playoffs across all 5,000 possible futures.
Lions Remaining Games
Drag toward a team to increase their win odds.
Other Key NFC Games
Games involving teams competing with the Lions for playoff positioning.
Tip: Set a game to 100% to simulate a guaranteed win, or 0% for a guaranteed loss. This helps you explore "what if" scenarios.
Projected NFC Playoff Picture
Based on current simulation results. Seeds 1-4 are division winners; 5-7 are wild cards.
NFC Playoff Seeding
Most likely team at each seed position, with Lions probability
Reading the Results
The #1 seed gets a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Only one team per conference earns this.
Division winners (seeds 1-4) are guaranteed a playoff spot regardless of record. Wild card teams (5-7) are the best remaining teams by win percentage.
Each row shows the team most likely to earn that seed. The Lions column shows their specific probability of landing at each position.
Game Impact Analysis
Which games matter most for Lions playoff odds? Based on 10,000 simulations per game.
Impact = difference in Lions playoff odds between 100% and 0% win probability for that game. Last updated: 12/21/2025