What are the Detroit Lions playoff odds?

As of December 9, 2025, the Detroit Lions have a 52.9% chance to make the NFL playoffs based on 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

What is the Lions most likely playoff seed?

The Lions most likely playoff seed is #7 (28.4% probability), followed by #6 (11.4%) and #2 (4.6%).

What is the Lions record in 2025?

The Detroit Lions are 8-5 through Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season, placing them 7th in the NFC standings.

December 9, 2025•Week 14 Complete

Detroit Lions Playoff Odds

Based on 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining NFL season, here's where the Lions stand in the playoff race.

Make Playoffs

52.9%

Miss Playoffs

47.1%

Current Record: 8-5 (61.5%)

NFC Rank: 7th

Division Record: 1-3 in NFC North

Seed Distribution

If the Lions Make It, Where Do They Land?

The most likely scenario is the Lions sneaking in as the 7th seed wild card. Division title hopes are slim given Green Bay's 4-0 division record.

1First-round bye

0.4%

2Division winner

4.6%

3Division winner

3.6%

4Division winner

0.6%

5Wild card

3.9%

6Wild card

11.4%

7Wild card

28.4%

Key Insight: The Lions have a 28.4% chance at the 7th seed—more than all other seeds combined. This reflects their position as a bubble team fighting for the last wild card spot.

Division Race

NFC North Standings

Green Bay controls the division at 4-0. The Lions' path to the playoffs runs through the wild card, where they're competing against NFC West and South teams.

Packers

Division leader

9-3-1

Div: 4-0

Bears

Wild card position

9-4

Div: 1-3

Lions

Wild card hunt

8-5

Div: 1-3

Vikings

Eliminated

5-8

Div: 2-2

Conference Picture

NFC Playoff Race

Seven teams make the playoffs. The Lions currently sit 7th—right on the bubble with Tampa Bay and Carolina lurking one game behind.

#	Team	Record	Win %
1	RamsWest	10-3	76.9%
2	SeahawksWest	10-3	76.9%
3	PackersNorth	9-3-1	73.1%
4	BearsNorth	9-4	69.2%
5	49ersWest	9-4	69.2%
6	EaglesEast	8-4	66.7%
7	LionsNorth	8-5	61.5%
8	BuccaneersSouth	7-6	53.8%
9	PanthersSouth	7-6	53.8%
10	CowboysEast	6-6-1	50%

Gold line indicates playoff cutoff. Teams above make the postseason.

Road Ahead

Lions Remaining Schedule

Four games remain. The Lions need wins to stay in the hunt, especially with a brutal Week 15 matchup at the 10-3 Rams.

Week 15

@ Rams

SoFi Stadium

Lions Win Prob

33%

Tough road test against 10-3 Rams

Week 16

vs Steelers

Ford Field

Lions Win Prob

70%

Best chance for a win at home

Week 17

@ Vikings

U.S. Bank Stadium

Lions Win Prob

60%

Division game, Vikings struggling

Week 18

@ Bears

Soldier Field

Lions Win Prob

60%

Season finale vs division rival

Expected Wins: Based on current probabilities, the Lions are projected to go roughly 2-2 down the stretch, finishing around 10-7. That should be enough for a wild card—but nothing is guaranteed.

Scenarios

What the Lions Need

Best Case

✓Win out (4-0) to finish 12-5
✓Packers lose 2+ games
✓Could win division or secure high wild card

Elimination Scenario

✗Lose to Rams in Week 15
✗Buccaneers/Panthers win their games
✗Could be eliminated before Week 18

Most Likely Outcome

The Lions split their remaining games (2-2), finish 10-7, and squeak into the playoffs as the 7th seed. They'd likely face the Rams or Seahawks on the road in the wild card round.

Competition

Teams Chasing Wild Cards

The Lions aren't just racing the clock—they're racing these teams for limited playoff spots:

Buccaneers

7-6

High threat

One game back, easier schedule

Panthers

7-6

High threat

Hot streak, division games left

Cowboys

6-6-1

Medium threat

Need to win out to have a chance

49ers

9-4

Low threat

Likely secure, but taking a spot

Run Your Own Scenarios

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